Vegamour (vegaLASH USA) · 2020 – 2026 · 7 Years of Data
In 6 out of 7 years, conversions declined from May to June, making this an even more reliable seasonal pattern than June-to-July (which occurs 5 of 7 years). The only exception was 2020, when total annual spend was just $165K and the account was at a fundamentally different scale. In every year at meaningful scale (2021-2026), June has underperformed May. The average conversion decline is -16.3%.
| Year | May ROAS | June ROAS | Change | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 650% | 575% | -11.5% | Down |
| 2021 | 194% | 184% | -5.2% | Down |
| 2022 | 155% | 165% | +6.5% | Up |
| 2023 | 142% | 133% | -6.3% | Down |
| 2024 | 134% | 163% | +21.6% | Up |
| 2025 | 167% | 157% | -6.0% | Down |
| 2026 | 313% | 283% | -9.6% | Down |
2024 is the only year showing a ROAS increase from May to June. However, this was driven by a massive budget reduction (May: $648K, June: $371K, a -42.8% cut), not improved performance. When you slash spend that aggressively, the remaining budget concentrates on the highest-ROAS campaigns, artificially inflating the blended number. Conversions still dropped -37.3%.
| Year | May Conv | June Conv | Change | May Spend | June Spend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 8,069 | 9,258 | +14.7% | $22,754 | $29,110 |
| 2021 | 16,154 | 13,972 | -13.5% | $246,645 | $239,862 |
| 2022 | 15,258 | 11,819 | -22.5% | $758,697 | $652,780 |
| 2023 | 17,196 | 15,216 | -11.5% | $1,406,696 | $1,357,523 |
| 2024 | 13,228 | 8,293 | -37.3% | $648,277 | $370,909 |
| 2025 | 4,557 | 4,261 | -6.5% | $282,458 | $271,459 |
| 2026 | 9,133 | 5,680 | -37.8% | $311,775 | $209,340 |
The Memorial Day Sale PMax campaign drove 469 conversions on $17,320 spend (May 22-31), pulling demand forward. No prior year had a dedicated May promotional campaign on Google Ads. Remove that promo's impact and May 2026 had ~8,664 organic conversions, making the adjusted decline closer to -34.4%. Still steeper than average, but the structural pattern (6 of 7 years down) is consistent.
| Year | May CPA | June CPA | Change | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.82 | $3.14 | +11.3% | More expensive |
| 2021 | $15.27 | $17.17 | +12.4% | More expensive |
| 2022 | $49.71 | $55.23 | +11.1% | More expensive |
| 2023 | $81.80 | $89.22 | +9.1% | More expensive |
| 2024 | $49.01 | $44.73 | -8.7% | Cheaper |
| 2025 | $61.98 | $63.71 | +2.8% | More expensive |
| 2026 | $34.14 | $36.85 | +7.9% | More expensive |
Both May ($34.14) and June ($36.85) 2026 CPAs are 47-58% cheaper than the prior agency's 2022-2025 performance ($44-$89 range). June CPA rose only +$2.71 from May. The efficiency engine is intact; it is volume (demand) that is seasonal, not our ability to convert.
| Year | May Spend | June Spend | Combined | May-to-June Change | Promo Campaigns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $22,754 | $29,110 | $51,864 | +27.9% | None identified |
| 2021 | $246,645 | $239,862 | $486,507 | -2.7% | None identified |
| 2022 | $758,697 | $652,780 | $1,411,477 | -14.0% | None identified |
| 2023 | $1,406,696 | $1,357,523 | $2,764,219 | -3.5% | None identified |
| 2024 | $648,277 | $370,909 | $1,019,186 | -42.8% | None identified (budget cut) |
| 2025 | $282,458 | $271,459 | $553,917 | -3.9% | None identified |
| 2026 | $311,775 | $209,340 | $521,115 | -32.9% | Memorial Day Sale PMax |
| Month | 2025 Spend | 2026 Spend | 2025 Conv | 2026 Conv | 2025 CPA | 2026 CPA | 2025 ROAS | 2026 ROAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | $232,574 | $161,429 | 3,754 | 4,624 | $61.96 | $34.92 | 159.2% | 354.8% |
| February | $228,789 | $158,476 | 3,588 | 5,111 | $63.76 | $31.01 | 163.5% | 367.5% |
| March | $316,655 | $194,789 | 5,007 | 5,834 | $63.24 | $33.39 | 152.9% | 317.8% |
| April | $368,963 | $247,560 | 5,613 | 7,393 | $65.74 | $33.48 | 169.8% | 302.4% |
| May | $282,458 | $311,775 | 4,557 | 9,133 | $61.98 | $34.14 | 166.8% | 312.8% |
| June | $271,459 | $209,340 | 4,261 | 5,680 | $63.71 | $36.85 | 157.1% | 282.7% |
| H1 Total | $1,700,898 | $1,283,369 | 26,780 | 37,775 | $63.51 | $33.97 | 161.8% | 318.7% |
| Campaign | May Spend | May Conv | May ROAS | June Spend | June Conv | June ROAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branded Search USA | $77,729 | 4,098 | 531% | $68,963 | 2,665 | 396% |
| Shopping USA | $50,834 | 1,441 | 316% | $25,498 | 651 | 289% |
| PMax - Hair Growth Serums | $55,105 | 1,059 | 208% | $38,479 | 741 | 192% |
| PMax - Shampoo Conditioner Kits | $50,474 | 671 | 163% | $21,782 | 378 | 196% |
| Subscription | PMax | $18,791 | 349 | 175% | $17,312 | 318 | 176% |
| Hair Quiz | PMax | $7,789 | 158 | 131% | $6,754 | 110 | 101% |
| PMax - Lash Serum | $11,217 | 228 | 218% | $8,913 | 133 | 176% |
| PMax - Style Wand | $7,183 | 213 | 233% | $6,441 | 145 | 160% |
| NB Search USA | $8,131 | 108 | 95% | $6,273 | 77 | 97% |
| Memorial Day Sale | PMax | $17,320 | 469 | 465% | $0 | 0 | -- |
Branded Search dropped from 4,098 to 2,665 conversions (-35.0%), and Shopping dropped from 1,441 to 651 (-54.8%). These two campaigns alone account for 2,223 of the 3,453 total conversion decline (64.4%). Both are intent-driven channels where volume is directly tied to search demand. The PMax campaigns held up comparatively better, with Subscription PMax showing nearly identical performance.
6 of 7 years show this pattern. It is more reliable than even the June-to-July drop (5 of 7). This is not a performance issue. It is a seasonal demand cycle where search intent naturally declines after the spring peak.
The Memorial Day Sale PMax contributed 469 conversions in the final 10 days of May. This demand would have otherwise been spread across late May and early June. The true organic decline is closer to -34% than -37.8%. For future planning, expect a post-promo hangover in the 7-10 days following any sale event.
2026 CPA ($34-$37) under Melleka (since April 14) is 47-58% cheaper than the prior agency's 2022-2025 range ($45-$89). ROAS is 2x higher than 2025. NCAC only increased +2.8% from May to June. The engine is running at peak efficiency. The problem is seasonal demand, not performance.
Across all 7 years, no dedicated June sale or promotional campaign has ever been run on Google Ads. Running a mid-June promotional campaign could help offset the seasonal decline, particularly given the post-Memorial Day demand vacuum.
These two intent-driven channels account for 64% of the total conversion decline. Their performance is directly tied to organic search demand. When fewer people search, there are fewer branded clicks to convert. PMax campaigns held steadier because they proactively generate demand rather than waiting for it.
2024 proved what happens when you slash budget aggressively: ROAS went up on paper, but total conversions dropped -37.3% and new subscriber volume cratered. The algorithm needs consistent budget to maintain auction presence. Cutting budget during seasonal lows compounds the decline.